Why Atiku will win - POLAF Poll, says rerun is unlikely

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According to a report published on Monday by the Political Africa Initiative (POLAF) and BusinessDay, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is projected to win the presidential poll.

The survey was conducted through telephone interviews with 3,123,660 respondents who were registered to vote in the election. These respondents were randomly sampled from 165 Local Government Areas across 20 states from the six geopolitical zones.

Atiku Abubakar
Atiku Abubakar

“APC comfortably above 25% in 3 geo-political zones (GPZs) and just about in 1 other // LP comfortably above in 3 geo-political zones (GPZs) and just about in 1 // PDP comfortably above 25% in all 6 geo-political zones (GPZs),” the report said. The poll revealed that PDP, APC, and LP are all closely matched, with PDP leading at 38%, APC following at 29%, and LP at 27%, while NNPP is trailing with just 5%. The report added that the PDP and APC would comfortably secure the constitutionally required spread of at least 25% across 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory. However, both LP and NNPP are struggling.

The report also noted that Atiku Abubakar is expected to receive more than 25% of the votes in six geo-political zones. The South-West geo-political zone, which has the second-highest voting strength nationwide with 17,958,966 votes, is considered a stronghold of APC/BAT. However, the PDP has two states there and is popular in others, with the exception of Lagos where the contest is between APC and LP.

The report also suggested that religious and ethnic biases could play a significant role in the North-Central geo-political zone, while in the South-South and South-East geo-political zones, the APC/BAT is considered extremely unpopular and incapable of achieving the required 25% across both zones. However, the report predicted that the PDP would attain the required 25% in all states of the South-East and probably win some.

The report projected that Atiku Abubakar of the PDP would attain the required 25% in over 30 states and the FCT, closely followed by the APC, and added that a runoff is “highly unlikely” in the presidential election.

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